Card Loss Forecasting - Vice President

JPMorgan Chase & Co. is a global leader in financial services, offering investment banking, consumer and small business services, commercial banking, and asset management. Serving millions of consumers and top corporate clients, the firm operates under the J.P. Morgan and Chase brands. The Chase Consumer & Community Banking division provides a wide range of financial services, while the Credit Loss Forecasting team plays a crucial role in managing credit card portfolio health and risk assessment.

Chase Consumer & Community Banking (CCB) serves consumers and small businesses with a broad range of financial services, including personal banking, small business banking and lending, mortgages, credit cards, payments, auto finance and investment advice. Consumer & Community Banking Risk Management partners with each CCB sub-line of business to identify, assess, prioritize and remediate risk. Types of risk that occur in consumer businesses include fraud, reputation, operational, credit, market and regulatory, among others.

Within CCB Risk Management, our Credit Loss Forecasting team is responsible for forecasts of credit card delinquencies, charge-offs, and recovery of charge off accounts for budget planning, monthly outlook, and Investor Day based on various macroeconomic scenarios, and in partnership with P&A, collections, and risk strategy teams. This team is also responsible for monitoring the health of the credit card portfolio and updating stakeholders and senior management on emerging trends.

As a professional within the Card Loss Forecasting team, you will be responsible for credit forecasting for the $220B credit card portfolio. This includes producing credit card delinquency and loss forecasts by portfolio segments and providing analytical insights to senior management. This role provides an exciting opportunity to develop your skills in a fast-paced environment. Financially, credit card represents the majority of Chase’s consumer credit losses. As a result, forecasted credit card losses are a focus of senior leaders, regulators, and investors, as illustrated by the extensive coverage of card losses at Investor Day and quarterly earnings.

Job responsibilities

• Produce the credit card loss forecast for bank-wide budget, including forecasts for several discrete segments including policy losses, bankruptcy, deceased and recoveries and reversals
• Build out, analyze and modify origination vintage and product level forecasts
• Analyze and understand loss forecasting quantitative model output
• Work with Finance, Modeling, and Risk Strategy teams to understand changes in the portfolio, model, or strategies and apply adjustments as needed
• Create and deliver presentations and other summarizations for Executive Leadership
• Create and run sensitivity scenarios based on economic conditions and management direction
• Complete ah hoc analysis
• Monitor and present delinquency and loss forecasts to key line of business partners
• Create and validate regulatory reporting
• Provide insight for senior management via regular risk deep dives
• Demonstrate initiative and the ability to work on multiple projects with limited guidance, while mentoring and coaching junior analysts to develop their risk management skills and finance knowledge.

Required qualifications, capabilities and skills

• A Bachelor's or Master's Degree in a quantitative discipline (Finance, Accounting, Business, Stats, Economics, Math, Engineering) or equivalent work/training
• Minimum 5 years of credit risk management, loss forecasting, statistical modeling, model execution and/or consulting experience
• Minimum 7 years of related analytical experience
• Proficiency in Microsoft Office suite of products (Advanced Excel, and PowerPoint)
• Credit risk experience in one or more US consumer credit portfolios (i.e. U.S. Mortgage, Credit Card, Automotive, Business Banking, Wealth Management, Private Banking) preferred
• Strong knowledge of Python, SAS, SQL preferred
• Strong analytical, interpretive, and problem solving skills with the ability to interpret large amounts of data and its impact in both operational and financial areas
• Excellent oral and written communication and presentation skills