Senior Applied Economist, Causal Inference & Forecasting

Senior Applied Economist, Causal Inference & Forecasting

Location: New York, NY

Department: Data

Navan is seeking a Senior Applied Economist to join the Data Science & Machine Learning team. This is a foundational, "first-of-its-kind" role at Navan, designed for a technical leader who can bridge the gaps between hands‑on machine learning, rigorous economic theory, and driving business outcomes.

In this role, you will be the primary architect of our internal economic "brain." You will move beyond point‑estimate forecasting to build sophisticated models that account for market nuances, uncertainty, and causal drivers. You will partner closely with Finance, Treasury, and FP&A to steer the company’s financial trajectory, while providing the strategic frameworks that Sales and Pricing teams use to maximize customer adoption and revenue.

What You’ll Do:

• Next-Generation Forecasting: Uplevel our existing forecasting pipelines (currently built on Prophet). You will integrate econometric rigor to improve accuracy and, crucially, provide a range of likely outcomes (probabilistic forecasting) that Finance and Treasury can rely on for risk management.
• Causal Inference & Strategy: Design and execute experimental and quasi-experimental frameworks to identify the "levers" of the business. You will answer critical questions regarding price elasticity, product feature attribution, and the ROI of sales incentives.
• Strategic Blueprinting: Partner with Sales and Account Management to create data-driven frameworks for pricing and customer retention. You will translate complex causal models into actionable blueprints for go‑to‑market teams.
• Production-Level Data Science: Work hands‑on within our ML infrastructure. You will write production-quality Python code to deploy models into our AWS and Snowflake-based ecosystem, ensuring your insights are automated and scalable.
• Internal Advisory: Act as the subject matter expert on economic literature and methodology, translating technical findings into strategic recommendations for executive leadership.

What We’re Looking For:

• Education: An advanced degree (PhD preferred, Masters required) in Economics, Statistics, or a related quantitative field with a heavy emphasis on econometrics or causal inference.
• Experience: 4+ years of post‑academic experience in an applied research, finance, or data science role, ideally within a high-growth tech environment or fintech.
  • Technical Proficiency:
    • Deep expertise in Python and its data science ecosystem (pandas, statsmodels, scikit-learn, etc.).
    • Advanced SQL skills, with experience querying large-scale data warehouses like Snowflake .
    • Experience working in production environments and a strong understanding of the ML lifecycle is nice to have.
• Econometric Mastery: Proven ability to apply advanced methods (e.g., Synthetic Control, IV, Diff‑in‑Diff, Structural Modeling) to messy, real-world datasets.
• Self‑Starter Mentality: Experience functioning in "underdefined" spaces. As our first economist, you must be comfortable setting the roadmap.
• Communication: The ability to explain not just the "what," but the "why" and the "what if." You can communicate uncertainty and risk to a CFO just as clearly as you can discuss model architecture with an ML Engineer.
• Preferred Qualifications:
  • Prior experience in Fintech, Payments, or Travel industries.
  • Experience building and scaling "first-of-their-kind" functions within a data organization.

Pay Range

$121,500 — $270,000 USD

Benefits

Navan offers a comprehensive benefits program designed to support your well-being, financial security, and life outside of work. Our benefits, thoughtfully tailored by country to meet local needs, include healthcare coverage, insurance offerings, and wellness resources for you and your family.

We support long-term financial growth through retirement savings programs and opportunities to participate in our equity plans, so you can share in Navan’s success. To promote balance, we offer flexible time off, country-specific holidays, and paid parental leave for all new parents. Additional benefits include connectivity and commuting support, mental health resources, and exclusive travel-related perks. Wherever you’re based, our benefits evolve with you.

Workplace Policy

Navan believes in the value of in-person connections, whether that’s sitting down to have lunch with one another, taking a walking 1:1, or collaborating in a room together. The connections forged through face‑to‑face interactions improve company culture and drive business results. Navan invests in global office spaces — in the U.S., Europe, and Asia, among others — that feel welcoming. In-office perks such as company-provided lunches and happy hours create a strong team environment to help you do your best work. Our employees work from the office four days a week. Please expect this policy for all roles that are tied to an office.

Accommodations

Navan complies with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), as amended by the ADA Amendments Act, and all applicable state or local law. Navan will reasonably accommodate qualified individuals with a disability in connection with applications for employment as required by law.

Equal Employment Opportunity

Navan is an equal opportunity employer. We make all employment decisions based solely on merit. We provide equal employment opportunity to all applicants and employees without discrimination on the bases of race, religion, color, national origin, gender (including pregnancy, childbirth, or related medical conditions), sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, age, status as a protected veteran, status as an individual with a disability, or other applicable legally protected characteristics. We prohibit any such discrimination or harassment. This policy applies to all terms and conditions of employment, including hiring.