Senior Economist

Senior Economist Position

The Office of Financial Management's mission is to provide accurate and timely information, fiscal services, and policy support that the Governor, Legislature, and state agencies need to serve the people of Washington State. The Forecasting and Research Division provides high-quality data and objective analyses on key issues affecting the state budget and policy development, including economic trends, population estimates, health care, education, and public safety.

The Senior Economist position is a professional, highly complex role responsible for conducting economic and revenue research, forecasts, and analyses under minimal supervision. Intensive, in-depth analysis of technical issues as well as broad, multi-faceted assignments for the Governor, Governor's senior staff and OFM staff, the Legislature, and legislative agencies on a wide variety of issues and policies are also a responsibility of this position.

Conduct forecasts and analysis of economic and revenue data and trends as assigned, including:

• Annual short-term net migration and long-term labor force and nonfarm employment forecasts. Quarterly state revenue forecasts for internal use.
• Annual Median Household Income estimates by county
• Annual Washington Trends chapters summarizing economic trends, population changes, socioeconomic conditions, budget drivers, and revenues, and expenditures for the general public.
• Weekly and monthly reports to keep agency leadership up-to-date regarding economic trends. The monthly report is developed in collaboration with other agencies (ESD, ERFC, DFI, and Commerce) and shared externally on OFM's website.

Fulfill ad hoc data requests, produce briefing papers, and other duties

Analyze complex economic and revenue issues. Create complex econometric models to forecast tax and fee revenues. Produce ad hoc analysis and reports in response to requests by OFM budget and Governor's policy staff, legislators, and legislative staff on a wide range of topics that can include but are not limited to major tax policy changes, business costs, expenditures and revenues by county, aerospace and technology developments, housing market developments, and labor market developments. Help prepare fiscal notes, present findings in legislative committee work sessions, and fulfill other requests during legislative sessions.

Support Input-Output Model development, maintenance, and use as requested by the Lead Senior Economist.

Collaborate in the construction and maintenance of the Washington State Input-Output Model. Annually update CPI and Producer Price Indexes for the 52 I-O sectors. Use the I-O model to produce job impact analysis for capital projects for other agencies and prepare other I-O analyses for other agencies as needed.

Communicate results in written products and oral presentations

Produce clearly written reports, briefs, presentations, infographics, and other products that meet statutory, accessibility, and agency requirements, are appropriate for the intended use of the data and research, and address the information needs of specific audiences including OFM senior staff, the Governor's staff, legislators and legislative staff as well as other interest holders and the public. Presentation venues may include, but are not limited to, meetings with the Governor, legislative committees, internal and external agency meetings, and conferences.

Required Qualifications:

• Advanced knowledge and applied skills in quantitative economic research and forecasting, including the use of descriptive and multivariate statistics and econometric modeling techniques
• Working knowledge of state and national economic and employment data and inflation measures and indices;
• Competence in data analysis using statistical and spreadsheet software such as R, SAS, EViews, Gauss, and MS Excel
• Ability to convert data and analysis to practical, understandable information;
• Experience using, maintaining, and updating input-output models;
• Ability to communicate effectively in writing and orally, including conveying complex data and analysis to audiences with limited knowledge of research, economics, and statistical methods; and
• Experience working on multiple projects at a time effectively without close supervision

Desired Qualifications:

• Ph.D. or other graduate degree in economics or other quantitative research
• Considerable (approximately three or more years) experience in conducting economic research studies, forecasting, and/or data analysis in a government setting