Provision Forecast Lead

At U.S. Bank, we’re on a journey to do our best. Helping the customers and businesses we serve to make better and smarter financial decisions and enabling the communities we support to grow and succeed. We believe it takes all of us to bring our shared ambition to life, and each person is unique in their potential. A career with U.S. Bank gives you a wide, ever-growing range of opportunities to discover what makes you thrive at every stage of your career. Try new things, learn new skills and discover what you excel at—all from Day One. Job Description The Provision Forecast Lead coordinates the development and distribution of credit provision expense projections for managerial forecasts, stress testing, and strategic planning exercises, including portfolio acquisitions and capital expenditure proposals that expand the Bank’s lending business. The role focuses on the creation, governance and distribution of provision expense projections across the bank’s business lines and lending portfolios under various scenarios, partnering closely with executive risk management, financial forecasting and credit modeling teams. The Forecast Lead works with various contributors to ensure projections for credit loss and ACL changes are supported through effective estimation, review and challenge procedures and credit forecast deliverables meet management’s expectations. Responsibilities • Serve as the primary credit contact for assigned finance and treasury customers, ensuring consistent delivery of credit forecast updates, including documentation and delivery of all ACL and provision estimates for annual stress testing exercises. • Develop and maintain effective communications to executive management, business line management and corporate finance management on credit changes. • Support delivery of baseline loss forecast and monthly / ad-hoc scenario sensitivity analyses as requested by management. • Own the Qualitative Estimation Approach (QEA) to estimate, document and deliver the CECL forecast across multiple scenarios. • Collaborate with internal credit partners (model development and implementation, portfolio risk managers, ACL leadership team) to align projections with portfolio performance and emerging risks. • Deliver provision expense estimates for strategic plans and capex proposals • Coordinate periodic review and updates of business line segment provision results, including quarterly results for externally reported financial results by business line. • Ensuring alignment of provision projections with portfolio credit quality and mix indicators, underwriting standards, and effects of economic conditions, as relevant. • Monitor business line credit projections reviews and industry trends to identify market conditions, credit trends, and emerging risks affecting the credit outlook. • Maintain documented methods, procedures and controls for provision projections consistent with the bank’s model risk governance policies and regulatory requirements. Basic Qualifications - Bachelor's degree, or equivalent work experience - Typically more than 10 years of applicable experience Preferred Skills/Experience - Effective presentation, verbal and written communication skills - Data visualization skills working with Power BI, Excel or similar tools - Ability to work effectively with individuals and groups in generating credit forecasts and explaining drivers of results - Advanced degree in relevant field - Ability to assess business risks related to credit loss forecasts - Understanding of key financial and credit performance ratios - Knowledge of bank lending products, lending structures and risk management models - Familiarity with financial reporting systems such as Hyperion Essbase or equivalent This role requires working from a U.S. Bank location three (3) or more days per week. If there’s anything we can do to accommodate a disability during any portion of the application or hiring process, please refer to our disability accommodations for applicants. Benefits: Our approach to benefits and total rewards considers our team members’ whole selves and what may be needed to thrive in and outside work. That's why our benefits are designed to help you and your family boost your health, protect your financial security and give you peace of mind. Our benefits include the following: Healthcare (medical, dental, vision) Basic term and optional term life insurance Short-term and long-term disability Pregnancy disability and parental leave 401(k) and employer-funded retirement plan Paid vacation (from two to five weeks depending on salary grade and tenure) Up to 11 paid holiday opportunities Adoption assistance Sick and Safe Leave accruals of one hour for every 30 worked, up to 80 hours per calendar year unless otherwise provided by law Review our full benefits available by employment status here. U.S. Bank is an equal opportunity employer. We consider all qualified applicants without regard to race, religion, color, sex, national origin, age, sexual orientation, gender identity, disability or veteran status, and other factors protected under applicable law. E-Verify U.S. Bank participates in the U.S. Department of Homeland Security E-Verify program in all facilities located in the United States and certain U.S. territories. The E-Verify program is an Internet-based employment eligibility verification system operated by the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. Learn more about the E-Verify program. The salary range reflects figures based on the primary location, which is listed first. The actual range for the role may differ based on the location of the role. In addition to salary, U.S. Bank offers a comprehensive benefits package, including incentive and recognition programs, equity stock purchase 401(k) contribution and pension (all benefits are subject to eligibility requirements). Pay Range: $133,365.00 - $156,900.00 U.S. Bank will consider qualified applicants with arrest or conviction records for employment. U.S. Bank conducts background checks consistent with applicable local laws, including the Los Angeles County Fair Chance Ordinance and the California Fair Chance Act as well as the San Francisco Fair Chance Ordinance. U.S. Bank is subject to, and conducts background checks consistent with the requirements of Section 19 of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act (FDIA). In addition, certain positions may also be subject to the requirements of FINRA, NMLS registration, Reg Z, Reg G, OFAC, the NFA, the FCPA, the Bank Secrecy Act, the SAFE Act, and/or federal guidelines applicable to an agreement, such as those related to ethics, safety, or operational procedures. Applicants must be able to comply with U.S. Bank policies and procedures including the Code of Ethics and Business Conduct and related workplace conduct and safety policies. Posting may be closed earlier due to high volume of applicants. At U.S. Bank, we’re on a journey to do our best. Helping the customers and businesses we serve to make better and smarter financial decisions and enabling the communities we support to grow and succeed. We believe it takes all of us to bring our shared ambition to life, and each person is unique in their potential. A career with U.S. Bank gives you a wide, ever-growing range of opportunities to discover what makes you thrive at every stage of your career. Try new things, learn new skills and discover what you excel at—all from Day One.