Fraud Loss Forecasting Analyst

At U.S. Bank, we’re on a journey to do our best. Helping the customers and businesses we serve to make better and smarter financial decisions and enabling the communities we support to grow and succeed. We believe it takes all of us to bring our shared ambition to life, and each person is unique in their potential. A career with U.S. Bank gives you a wide, ever-growing range of opportunities to discover what makes you thrive at every stage of your career. Try new things, learn new skills and discover what you excel at—all from Day One.

Job Description

In this role, you will lead all aspects of Consumer and Business Banking (CBB) fraud loss forecasting, including daily projections, monthly forecasts, and the annual planning process. You will be responsible for developing data-driven recommendations, challenging assumptions, and providing clear rationale to support forecast decisions.

Success in this role requires strong analytical judgment, intellectual curiosity, and the ability to identify meaningful signals within complex and often conflicting information. The ideal candidate can synthesize emerging risks, historical performance, operational intelligence, and business changes into actionable insights and clearly articulated forecast assumptions.

Primary Responsibilities

• Own the CBB daily fraud loss projection process end-to-end.

• Develop and recommend the monthly fraud loss forecast through data-driven analysis and sound business judgment.

• Lead the annual planning process for CBB fraud losses.

• Monitor emerging fraud risks, business changes, operational initiatives, and control enhancements; assess potential impacts and proactively incorporate them into forecasts and planning assumptions.

• Investigate forecast variances by identifying drivers, explaining performance relative to expectations, and recommending actions.

• Identify trends, patterns, and emerging fraud risks through analysis of large and complex datasets.

• Translate analytical findings into clear recommendations, reports, dashboards, and executive communications.

• Independently draft monthly executive summaries and leadership updates.

• Lead engagement with Operations, Finance, Claims, and other cross-functional partners.

• Facilitate monthly business reviews and drive follow-up actions related to fraud events, forecast performance, and emerging risks.

• Provide weekly loss updates, strategic insights, and forward-looking perspectives to leadership and stakeholders.

Basic Qualifications
- Bachelor’s degree, or equivalent work experience
- Typically more than six years of applicable experience

Preferred Skills and Experience

• Forecasting & Judgment: Demonstrated ability to apply analytical reasoning and business judgment in ambiguous environments.

• Analytical Problem Solving: Ability to identify performance drivers, connect disparate data points, and determine which factors materially impact results.

• Ownership & Initiative: Proactively drives complex issues to resolution and operates effectively with limited direction.

• Communication & Influence: Ability to communicate complex findings to senior leaders, manage stakeholder expectations, challenge assumptions appropriately, and influence decisions through well-supported recommendations.

• Strong analytical rigor, attention to detail, and commitment to accuracy.

• Proven ability to manage multiple priorities and competing deadlines in a fast-paced environment.

• Intermediate to advanced coding and data analysis skills (SAS, SQL, or similar analytical tools).

• Strong proficiency with Microsoft Office and data analysis applications.

• Bachelor's degree in a quantitative field such as Finance, Economics, Mathematics, Statistics, Data Analytics, or a related discipline. Master's degree preferred.

LOCATION EXPECTATIONS: This role requires working from a U.S. Bank Location three (3) or more days per week.

NOTE: This position is not eligible for current or future visa sponsorship.

If there’s anything we can do to accommodate a disability during any portion of the application or hiring process, please refer to our disability accommodations for applicants.

Benefits:

Our approach to benefits and total rewards considers our team members’ whole selves and what may be needed to thrive in and outside work. That's why our benefits are designed to help you and your family boost your health, protect your financial security and give you peace of mind. Our benefits include the following:

• Healthcare (medical, dental, vision)

• Basic term and optional term life insurance

• Short-term and long-term disability

• Pregnancy disability and parental leave

• 401(k) and employer-funded retirement plan

• Paid vacation (from two to five weeks depending on salary grade and tenure)

• Up to 11 paid holiday opportunities

• Adoption assistance

• Sick and Safe Leave accruals of one hour for every 30 worked, up to 80 hours per calendar year unless otherwise provided by law

Review our full benefits available by employment status here .

U.S. Bank is an equal opportunity employer. We consider all qualified applicants without regard to race, religion, color, sex, national origin, age, sexual orientation, gender identity, disability or veteran status, and other factors protected under applicable law.

E-Verify

U.S. Bank participates in the U.S. Department of Homeland Security E-Verify program in all facilities located in the United States and certain U.S. territories. The E-Verify program is an Internet-based employment eligibility verification system operated by the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. Learn more about the E-Verify program.

The salary range reflects figures based on the primary location, which is listed first. The actual range for the role may differ based on the location of the role. In addition to salary, U.S. Bank offers a comprehensive benefits package, including incentive and recognition programs, equity stock purchase 401(k) contribution and pension (all benefits are subject to eligibility requirements). Pay Range: $105,400.00 - $124,000.00

U.S. Bank will consider qualified applicants with arrest or conviction records for employment. U.S. Bank conducts background checks consistent with applicable local laws, including the Los Angeles County Fair Chance Ordinance and the California Fair Chance Act as well as the San Francisco Fair Chance Ordinance. U.S. Bank is subject to, and conducts background checks consistent with the requirements of Section 19 of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act (FDIA). In addition, certain positions may also be subject to the requirements of FINRA, NMLS registration, Reg Z, Reg G, OFAC, the NFA, the FCPA, the Bank Secrecy Act, the SAFE Act, and/or federal guidelines applicable to an agreement, such as those related to ethics, safety, or operational procedures.

Applicants must be able to comply with U.S. Bank policies and procedures including the Code of Ethics and Business Conduct and related workplace conduct and safety policies.

Posting may be closed earlier due to high volume of applicants.