Senior Manager, Forecasting & Vintage Analytics

Application Deadline:08/13/2026Address:33 Dundas Street WestJob Family Group:Audit, Risk & ComplianceJoin a pioneering team shaping the future of Canadian Retail Credit Strategies.We’re building next-generation, end-to-end credit solutions that span the entire lifecycle—from acquisition and account management to collections—anchored in a holistic Lending Decision Strategy and aligned with Canadian Personal & Business Banking (P&BB) priorities.Our approach combines cutting-edge decisioning software, advanced decision trees, and innovative credit models to deliver smarter, faster, and more customer-centric outcomes. This is your opportunity to influence credit cycles using modern modeling techniques and best-in-class decision-making applications, all within a high-performance, customer-focused environment.If you’re passionate about leveraging data, technology, and strategy to transform lending decisions and drive meaningful impact across Canadian P&BB, this is the team for you.#FutureOfRetailLendingDevelops and maintains risk decision-support strategies using analytical solutions to enable high-quality, fact-based decisions for a designated risk portfolio. Supports the development of the strategy and roadmap for data quality, data analytics, data modeling, reporting, business intelligence, and the design and development of sophisticated decision support tools.Own development and operationalization of forecasting frameworks for balances, losses, revenue and profitability across multiple lending strategies.Design and measure champion/challenger and test/control experiments to quantify incremental strategy impact, loss avoidance and economic value creation.Build executive-ready Power BI solutions that enable scenario testing, forecast monitoring and self-serve analytics.Lead vintage analytics, cohort performance analysis and attribution of forecast variances.Translate complex analytical findings into clear business recommendations for senior executivesMakes recommendations to senior leaders on strategy and new initiatives, based on an in-depth understanding of the business/group.Measures the effectiveness of risk decision strategy management framework; recommends changes as required.Conducts independent analysis and assessment to resolve strategic issues.Leads the development and maintenance of the risk strategy management framework.Represents the decision strategy function during internal/external regulatory audits and/or examinations.Designs and produces regular and ad-hoc reports, and dashboards.Develops and manages comprehensive information management systems; designs and/or leads initiatives to improve processes, analysis and reporting.Defines business requirements for analytics & reporting to ensure data insights inform business decision making.Breaks down strategic problems, and analyses data and information to provide insights and recommendations.Leads change management programs of varying scope and type, including readiness assessments, planning, stakeholder management, execution, evaluation and sustainment of initiatives.Leads the execution of operational programs; assesses and adapts as needed to ensure quality of execution.Leads and integrates the monitoring, measurement & reporting on the status of the risk decision strategy performance to internal & external stakeholders.Leads the management of governance meetings and maintenance of governing body mandates, oversight and approval guidelines.Leads in the design, implementation and management of core business/group processes.Develops and maintains risk strategies using analytics, predictive modelling and business rules to optimize decisions and productivity.Supports the planning and execution of the change management process including simulation, validation testing and reporting requirements to evaluate the effectiveness of the new or modified strategies.Provides advice and guidance to assigned business/group on implementation of analytical solutions.Develops and maintains in-depth knowledge of business product strategies and related risk management requirements and legislative/ regulatory directives.Works with stakeholders to identify the business requirements, understand the profitability structure, the risk / return assessment and the expected outcomes.Works with data owners to discover and select available data sources from internal sources and external vendors (e.g. lending system, payment system, external credit rating system) to fulfill analytical needs.Works with internal and external stakeholders to understand the capabilities of risk models and core risk systems to ensure effectiveness of risk decision strategies..Summarizes statistical findings and draws conclusions and presents actionable business recommendations.Presents findings & recommendations in a simple, clear way to drive action.Consults with stakeholders to improve consistency and transparency of risk measurement, metrics and reporting.Monitors and tracks performance; addresses any issues.Broader work or accountabilities may be assigned as needed.Qualifications:7+ years of experience in credit strategy, portfolio analytics, risk analytics or lending performance management.Strong verbal and written communication skills are required, with the ability to effectively communicate complex information, collaborate with diverse stakeholders, and deliver an exceptional customer experience.Experience designing and measuring test/control experiments and quantifying incremental business impact.Deep understanding of vintage analytics, cohort analysis, loss forecasting and portfolio economics.Advanced Excel skills with ability to build forecasting and scenario models from scratch.Advanced Power BI experience including dynamic reporting, what-if analysis and executive dashboard development.Proven ability to communicate analytical insights to executive audienceIn-depth / expert product knowledge for the designated business / portfolio.In-depth / expert knowledge of risk management theory, processes and portfolio management reporting techniques.In-depth / expert knowledge of modelling & analytics concepts and applications.In-depth / expert knowledge of risk systems technology.In-depth / expert knowledge of regulatory requirements.Seasoned professional with a combination of education, experience and industry knowledge.Verbal & written communication skills - In-depth / Expert.Analytical and problem solving skills - In-depth / Expert.Influence skills - In-depth / Expert.Collaboration & team skills; with a focus on cross-group collaboration - In-depth / Expert.Able to manage ambiguity.Data driven decision making - In-depth / Expert.Salary:$86,000.00 - $160,000.00Pay Type: SalariedThe above represents BMO Financial Group’s pay range and type.Salaries will vary based on factors such as location, skills, experience, education, and qualifications for the role, and may include a commission structure. Salaries for part-time roles will be pro-rated based on number of hours regularly worked. For commission roles, the salary listed above represents BMO Financial Group’s expected target for the first year in this position.BMO Financial Group’s total compensation package will vary based on the pay type of the position and may include performance-based incentives, discretionary bonuses, as well as other perks and rewards. BMO also offers health insurance, tuition reimbursement, accident and life insurance, and retirement savings plans. To view more details of our benefits, please visit: About UsAt BMO we are driven by a shared Purpose: Boldly Grow the Good in business and life. It calls on us to create lasting, positive change for our customers, our communities and our people. By working together, innovating and pushing boundaries, we transform lives and businesses, and power economic growth around the world.As a member of the BMO team you are valued, respected and heard, and you have more ways to grow and make an impact. We strive to help you make an impact from day one – for yourself and our customers. We’ll support you with the tools and resources you need to reach new milestones, as you help our customers reach theirs. From in-depth training and coaching, to manager support and network-building opportunities, we’ll help you gain valuable experience, and broaden your skillset.To find out more visit us at .BMO is committed to an inclusive, equitable and accessible workplace. By learning from each other’s differences, we gain strength through our people and our perspectives. Accommodations are available on request for candidates taking part in all aspects of the selection process. To request accommodation, please contact your recruiter.Note to Recruiters: BMO does not accept unsolicited resumes from any source other than directly from a candidate. Any unsolicited resumes sent to BMO, directly or indirectly, will be considered BMO property. BMO will not pay a fee for any placement resulting from the receipt of an unsolicited resume. A recruiting agency must first have a valid, written and fully executed agency agreement contract for service to submit resumes.SummaryLocation: Toronto, ON, CANType: Full time