Lead Estimator

Job Description

Job Description

Position Summary

The Lead Estimator is the company’s technical authority for capital cost estimating across the North American capital portfolio. Reporting to the Director, Capital Portfolio Management, this role prepares owner-side Front-End-Loading estimates including final investment funding, validates contractor budget estimates, and owns the cost basis that supports funding decisions at each Front-End Loading (FEL 1, FEL 2, FEL 3) stage gate, from early conceptual screening through the Class 2 budget estimates and Class 1 Estimates at Completion.

Estimate Development and Ownership

• Prepare owner-side AACE Class 1 - 5 estimates, and own the cost basis for your estimates across the FEL lifecycle for a mix of project types common to sulfuric acid and petrochemical operations: equipment replacements, brick-lined and alloy vessel work, converter and heat exchanger replacements, piping and tank work, electrical and controls upgrades, environmental compliance projects, and turnaround-related capital.
• Apply estimating methods suited to the level of definition, including capacity-factored, equipment-factored, parametric, semi-detailed, and detailed unit-rate estimates.
• Develop a documented Basis of Estimate (BOE) for every estimate that defines scope, quantities, pricing sources, labor productivity, escalation, exclusions, assumptions, and expected accuracy range.
• Work with the FEL Gate Project Manager and Director of Capital Portfolio Management to ensure all estimates meet the required gate deliverables before any gate review or funding request.

Estimate Review, Validation, and Benchmarking

• Independently review and validate estimates prepared by engineering firms, EPC contractors, and internal project teams before they are presented at FEL gates or included in Authorization Requests and issue written findings with required corrections before gate submission.
• Benchmark estimates against historical project actuals, industry cost data, and comparable projects; challenge outliers and document the reconciliation.
• Confirm that estimate class and accuracy range match the project’s stage of definition and PDRI results, and flag any mismatch to the FEL Gatekeeper.

Contingency, Risk, and Escalation

• Lead risk-based contingency development using range estimating and Monte Carlo methods, and present P50 and P80 (or equivalent) cost outcomes to support funding decisions.
• Develop escalation forecasts for labor, materials, and major equipment, including alloys, refractory, and specialty acid-service components.

Cost Data, Standards, and Continuous Improvement

• Build and maintain a historical cost database of completed projects, including normalized actual costs, unit rates, labor productivity, and estimate-versus-actual performance.
• Develop and maintain the company’s capital estimating standard, templates, estimate checklists, and BOE requirements, aligned with AACE International recommended practices.
• Track estimate accuracy at closeout, identify systematic bias, and feed lessons learned back into estimating standards and the FEL process.
• Develop and maintain relationships with fabricators, equipment suppliers, and contractors to keep current market pricing and lead-time intelligence.

Portfolio and Governance Support

• Support the Director, Capital Portfolio Management with annual capital budget development and the five-year capital plan by supplying order-of-magnitude estimates for proposed projects.
• Provide cost input to Authorization Requests, supplemental funding requests, and change management, and help explain variances between estimate and forecast.
• Work closely with the FEL Gatekeeper so that cost deliverables at each gate meet the defined standard.
• Mentor project engineers and managers on estimating fundamentals and on how to understand and challenge an estimate.

• Bachelor’s degree in Engineering (Chemical, Mechanical, Civil, or Electrical), Construction Management, or a related technical field; equivalent experience may be considered.
• Minimum 8 years of capital cost estimating experience (10+ years preferred) in the petrochemical, refining, chemical, or related process industries, including owner-side or EPC estimating roles.
• Demonstrated experience preparing and reviewing AACE Class 5 through Class 3 estimates for projects up to $25MM or more.
• Working knowledge of stage-gate (FEL) capital project processes and of how estimate quality relates to project definition, including familiarity with the Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI).
• Hands-on experience with risk-based contingency analysis (range estimating and Monte Carlo simulation).
• Strong understanding of process plant equipment, piping, civil and structural, electrical, and instrumentation scopes, and of field construction methods and labor productivity.
• Advanced Microsoft Excel skills and experience with commercial estimating software (for example, Aspen Capital Cost Estimator, Richardson, Icarus, Compass, or similar).
• Clear written and verbal communication skills, including the ability to defend an estimate to senior leadership and to challenge contractors constructively.

• Project Management Professional (PMP) certification from the Project Management Institute (PMI), or AACE International Certified Cost Professional (CCP) or Certified Estimating Professional (CEP). At least one is strongly preferred; holding two is ideal.
• Experience in sulfuric acid, SO₂, or other corrosive-service operations, including alloy and brick-lined equipment.
• Experience with PSM-covered facilities and how Management of Change (MOC), HAZOP, and Pre-Startup Safety Review (PSSR) requirements affect project scope and cost.
• Experience with risk analysis tools such as @RISK, Crystal Ball, or Primavera Risk Analysis.