Political Analyst - Elections Forecasting

Job Description

Job Description

About the job

Mercor connects elite creative and technical talent with leading AI research labs. Headquartered in San Francisco, our investors include Benchmark , General Catalyst , Peter Thiel , Adam D'Angelo , Larry Summers , and Jack Dorsey .

Position: Local Political Expert — Elections Forecasting & Political Risk
Type: Contract
Compensation: $150–$250/hour
Location: Remote

Role Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.
• Work independently and asynchronously to meet deadlines while improving AI model performance .

Qualifications

Must-Have

• Local political analysts with hands-on experience on specific races in swing states.
• On-the-ground knowledge of the electorate, candidates, and local political environment.
• A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds in those races.
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis.
• 8+ years of direct experience or equivalent performance.

Preferred

• Experience in political science departments and survey research centers at universities in target states.
• State and regional pollsters, state-level campaign and party analytics teams.
• Decision desks or race-ratings outlets with state-specific coverage.
• National forecasting or political-risk experience with deep knowledge of a specific state.

Not a fit

• Profiles with experience mainly in international politics, geopolitics, or country risk.
• Analysts who have not worked on a current or recent US race in the state they would cover.
• Pure communications or journalism profiles without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment.
• Academic profiles whose work is purely theoretical, with no analysis of live races.

Application Process (Takes 20–30 mins to complete)

• Upload resume
• AI interview based on your resume
• Submit form

Resources & Support

• For details about the interview process and platform information, please check:
• For any help or support, reach out to: View email address on ziprecruiter.com

PS: Our team reviews applications daily. Please complete your AI interview and application steps to be considered for this opportunity.