Elections Forecaster and Political Risk Analyst for AI Evaluation

Role Overview

Develop expert-authored political forecasting and research data that helps evaluate and improve AI models performing real-world political and financial analysis. The work centers on elections, polling, and political-risk events, using only information available at a defined point in time.

Key Responsibilities

• Write political reports and forecasts based on a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional assessments of polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanisms through which events may affect political outcomes and markets.
• Review AI-generated analyses and assess them against expert standards.
• Maintain strict point-in-time reasoning, without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.

Qualifications

• Experience as a senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology specialist, or political-risk analyst.
• A demonstrated record of making live assessments involving polling, win probabilities, or odds, rather than only retrospective commentary.
• Strong polling literacy and ability to analyze event-driven causal effects.
• Typically 8+ years of directly relevant experience, or compelling evidence of equivalent performance.
• Relevant backgrounds may include national polling and election-forecasting organizations, major decision desks, senior analytics teams for presidential, Senate, or gubernatorial races, or political-risk teams at banks, funds, or advisory firms. Recognized organizations can be a helpful initial signal, but demonstrated experience and work-sample performance determine qualification.

Not a Fit

Profiles focused solely on communications, journalism, or academia without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment experience are not suited to this work.

Work Terms

• Remote, hourly engagement.

Compensation

• $150 to $250 per hour.