Local Political Analyst, Elections Forecasting and Political Risk

Role Overview

Produce expert-authored political forecasts and research that help evaluate and improve AI models performing real-world political and financial analysis. You will assess elections, polling, and political-risk events using only information available at a defined point in time, documenting the judgment a strong analyst would have made without hindsight.

Key Responsibilities

• Write point-in-time political reports and forecasts based on a stated evidence cutoff.
• Develop and document directional assessments of polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanisms through which events may affect politics and markets.
• Review AI-generated analyses and evaluate them against your own analytical standard.

Qualifications

• Hands-on experience analyzing specific races in swing states, including current or upcoming Senate, governor, or statewide contests, or recent election cycles in the same state.
• Deep local knowledge of the electorate, candidates, and political environment, gained through work such as university political science, state or regional polling, state-level campaign or party analytics, or state political-risk analysis.
• A demonstrated record of making live judgments on polling, win probabilities, or odds for relevant races, rather than only retrospective commentary.
• Strong polling literacy and ability to analyze causal political events.
• Typically 8 or more years of directly relevant experience, or compelling evidence of equivalent performance.
• Relevant backgrounds may include political science departments or survey research centers at target-state universities, state and regional pollsters, state-level campaign and party analytics teams, and decision desks or race-ratings outlets with state-specific coverage.
• National forecasting or political-risk experience is valuable when paired with deep expertise in a particular state. Recognized organizations may be a positive initial signal, but selection is based on direct experience and performance on the work sample.

Not a Fit

• Experience focused primarily on international politics, geopolitics, or country risk without meaningful work on US races.
• No experience working on a current or recent US race in the state to be covered.
• Communications or journalism backgrounds without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment.
• Purely theoretical academic work without analysis of live races.

Analytical Standards

All work must rely solely on information available by the stated evidence cutoff. Analyses must not use hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.

Work Terms

• Remote, hourly engagement.

Compensation

• $150 to $250 per hour.