Prediction & Evaluation Technical Lead
Full-time
National Reconnaissance Office (NRO)
WE ARE THE NRO
For sixty years, the NRO has developed, acquired, launched and operated the satellites that are the foundation for America's advantage and strength in space. Using a diversified architecture of spacecraft, NRO collects and delivers the best space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance content on the planet.
Learn more at NRO.gov . Basic Eligibility For A Position With The NRO
The Ground Enterprise Directorate's (GED) Integrated Intelligence System Program Office (I2SPO) delivers game-changing capabilities to support the Department of Defense and the Intelligence Community. This position provides an opportunity to establish and lead a dedicated AI/ML Model Development and Evaluation Program Office that will mature forecasting and prediction capabilities critical to the object custody mission, directly impacting collection effectiveness and situational awareness for operational users across the enterprise. The selected candidate will serve as the Lead for the Multi-INT Prediction and Model Evaluation within GED/I2SPO. This leader will be responsible for establishing a dedicated program office focused on developing, integrating, evaluating, and operationalizing forecasting and prediction models across I2SPO's portfolio missions. The position will drive the maturation of object and behavior prediction capabilities, establish evaluation frameworks for internal and external forecasting models, and serve as the primary interface between GED-internal model developer teams, compute infrastructure providers, and external forecasting providers. This leader will translate operational forecasting gaps into a comprehensive development roadmap while establishing the technical infrastructure (test harness, APIs, integration standards) needed to rapidly evaluate and deploy prediction capabilities that enhance object custody, collection optimization, and overhead tasking effectiveness. The NRO Cadre is collecting resumes for consideration against current and future opportunities for Non-Supervisor, Prediction and Evaluation Technical Lead, GGS 11-13, occupational series 0801/1301/1501 . More information on the occupational series can be viewed on the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) website . This is a full-time position that is open from 2026-10-16 to 2026-10-23. Resumes must be submitted by 11:59 PM EST on 2026-10-23. Who May Apply
Required:
CHANTILLY, VA
Telework is not available and you must be able to work at the specified location(s). Salary
This position meets the qualifications for Defense Civilian Intelligence Personnel System (DCIPS) Targeted Local Market Supplement (TLMS) STEM pay for NRO Cadre employees and candidates as authorized by the office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security's (OUSD(I&S)). Cadre employees and candidates are eligible to receive STEM pay if they are currently serving in a STEM designated position. Should a Cadre employee or candidate earning STEM pay change positions within the organization, they must be assigned to another STEM qualifying position in order to continue to remain eligible for STEM pay. Otherwise, Cadre employees and Candidates Generally would be transitioned to the DCIPS GG Pay Scale. For more information on STEM pay, visit DCIPS STEM Compensation . GG-11: $105,262 - $136,848
GG-12: $117,753 - $153,082
GG-13: $132,751 - $172,578 The NRO is accepting applications from U.S. Citizens and current federal government employees for this position. To qualify for the position, federal government employees MUST currently be at the advertised grade level(s) and may ONLY apply for a lateral reassignment at their current grade level and step. Federal applicants who exceed the advertised grade may voluntarily request acceptance at the lower grade per IAW DoW 1400.25 Volume 2006. Hiring Incentives
The NRO may offer hiring incentives and other entitlements at management's discretion. Trial Period
All new DCIPS employees will be required to serve a 2-year trial period. Veterans' Preference
DoW Components with DCIPS positions apply Veterans' Preference to preference eligible candidates as defined by Section 2108 of Title 5 USC, in accordance with the procedures provided in DoW Instruction 1400.25, Vol 2005, DCIPS Employment and Placement. If you are a veteran claiming veterans' preference, as defined by section 2108 of Title 5 USC, you must submit documents verifying your eligibility upon request. Equal Employment Opportunity Policy
The United States government does not discriminate in employment on the basis of race, color, religion, sex, pregnancy, national origin, political affiliation, sexual orientation, marital status, disability, genetic information, age, membership in an employee organization, retaliation, parental status, military service or other non-merit factor.
Federal agencies must provide reasonable accommodation to applicants with disabilities where appropriate. Applicants requiring reasonable accommodation for any part of the application process should follow the instructions in the job opportunity announcement. For any part of the remaining hiring process, applicants should contact the hiring agency directly. Determinations on requests for reasonable accommodation will be made on a case-by-case basis. A reasonable accommodation is any change to a job, the work environment, or the way things are usually done that enables an individual with a disability to apply for a job, perform job duties or receive equal access to job benefits. Under the Rehabilitation Act of 1973, federal agencies must provide reasonable accommodations when:
Privacy Act Notice (PL 93-579): We use this information to determine qualifications for employment. This is authorized under Title 5 U.S.C. 3302 and 3361.
Read more about the Privacy Act of 1974 .
For sixty years, the NRO has developed, acquired, launched and operated the satellites that are the foundation for America's advantage and strength in space. Using a diversified architecture of spacecraft, NRO collects and delivers the best space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance content on the planet.
Learn more at NRO.gov . Basic Eligibility For A Position With The NRO
- You must be a U.S. Citizen
- You must be able to obtain and maintain a TS/SCI security clearance
- You will be subject to pre-employment and periodic drug testing
- You will be subject to pre-employment and periodic polygraph examinations
The Ground Enterprise Directorate's (GED) Integrated Intelligence System Program Office (I2SPO) delivers game-changing capabilities to support the Department of Defense and the Intelligence Community. This position provides an opportunity to establish and lead a dedicated AI/ML Model Development and Evaluation Program Office that will mature forecasting and prediction capabilities critical to the object custody mission, directly impacting collection effectiveness and situational awareness for operational users across the enterprise. The selected candidate will serve as the Lead for the Multi-INT Prediction and Model Evaluation within GED/I2SPO. This leader will be responsible for establishing a dedicated program office focused on developing, integrating, evaluating, and operationalizing forecasting and prediction models across I2SPO's portfolio missions. The position will drive the maturation of object and behavior prediction capabilities, establish evaluation frameworks for internal and external forecasting models, and serve as the primary interface between GED-internal model developer teams, compute infrastructure providers, and external forecasting providers. This leader will translate operational forecasting gaps into a comprehensive development roadmap while establishing the technical infrastructure (test harness, APIs, integration standards) needed to rapidly evaluate and deploy prediction capabilities that enhance object custody, collection optimization, and overhead tasking effectiveness. The NRO Cadre is collecting resumes for consideration against current and future opportunities for Non-Supervisor, Prediction and Evaluation Technical Lead, GGS 11-13, occupational series 0801/1301/1501 . More information on the occupational series can be viewed on the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) website . This is a full-time position that is open from 2026-10-16 to 2026-10-23. Resumes must be submitted by 11:59 PM EST on 2026-10-23. Who May Apply
- This position is open to the public.
- Federal government employees MUST currently be at the grade level or higher as indicated in this announcement. This is NOT a promotion opportunity for current Federal government employees. If selected for the position, Federal government employees will transition laterally at their current grade level and step.
- Federal applicants who exceed the advertised grade may voluntarily request acceptance at the lower grade per IAW DoW 1400.25 Volume 2006.
- The NRO is only accepting external applicants for this job announcement. Current NRO Cadre employees should apply internally.
- This position MAY qualify for the appointment of a reemployed federal annuitant IAW DoWI 1400.25 Volume 300.
- Establish and lead the Multi-INT Prediction and Model Evaluation Program
- Develop and maintain a comprehensive forecasting and prediction capability roadmap that drives model development priorities within UDE/MAC and integrates 3rd party forecasters
- Design and oversee development of a robust 'test harness' capability that enables rapid comparison and evaluation of forecasting models, producing live operational metrics to quantify performance and identify capability gaps.
- Conduct community and industry surveys of forecasting technology to assess operational maturity, integration approaches, domain applicability, and performance benchmarks.
- Lead development of Forecasting Interface Control Documents (ICDs) and integration standards to enable standardized communication of forecasting services with CIP tools, orchestration functions, and collection systems.
- Serve as technical authority for forecasting/prediction model selection, ensuring automatic selection of best forecaster based on situation/purpose rather than one-size-fits-all approaches.
- Coordinate integration of forecasting capabilities across the object custody ecosystem, ensuring alignment with CIP integration requirements and overhead tasking workflows.
Required:
- Bachelor's degree in a STEM field (Science, Technology, Engineering, or Mathematics)
- Knowledge of forecasting and prediction methodologies, machine learning algorithms, and model evaluation techniques
- Experience leading technical programs or projects involving algorithm development and operational integration
- Understanding of software development practices sufficient to define technical architectures and integration requirements
- Master's degree in relevant technical field
- Experience with maritime tracking, object custody, or geospatial prediction applications
- Experience developing performance metrics and evaluation frameworks for ML/AI models
- Knowledge of API design and microservices architectures
- Experience with test automation and continuous evaluation frameworks
- Agile program management experience
- Cloud deployment experience (AWS/Azure)
- Experience integrating 3rd party algorithms or COTS/GOTS capabilities into operational systems
- Overtime Statement: MAY be required to work other than normal duty hours, which may include evenings, weekends, and/or holidays.
- Travel Statement: MAY be required to travel in military or commercial aircraft to perform temporary duty assignments.
- Financial Disclosure: MAY be required to file an OGE Form 450, Confidential Financial Disclosure Report, upon appointment and will be required to file annually.
- Defense Acquisition Workforce Improvement Act (DAWIA) coded positions: If selected for a DAWIA coded position, the incumbent must meet appropriate certification requirements IAW the Defense Acquisition Workforce Improvement Act (DAWIA) no later than 24 months after accepting this position. Individual shall maintain, at a minimum 80 continuous Learning Points every 24 months via the services acquisition management system. DAWIA requirements may be located at the Defense Acquisition University website .
- Geographic Mobility Agreement: MAY be subject to directed reassignment as required to address mission effectiveness, and/or career development.
- Information Assurance (IA): Must achieve the appropriate IA certification within six months of assignment.
- Emergency Essential: Certain positions MAY be deemed emergency essential and incumbents must be willing to meet all position requirements.
CHANTILLY, VA
Telework is not available and you must be able to work at the specified location(s). Salary
This position meets the qualifications for Defense Civilian Intelligence Personnel System (DCIPS) Targeted Local Market Supplement (TLMS) STEM pay for NRO Cadre employees and candidates as authorized by the office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security's (OUSD(I&S)). Cadre employees and candidates are eligible to receive STEM pay if they are currently serving in a STEM designated position. Should a Cadre employee or candidate earning STEM pay change positions within the organization, they must be assigned to another STEM qualifying position in order to continue to remain eligible for STEM pay. Otherwise, Cadre employees and Candidates Generally would be transitioned to the DCIPS GG Pay Scale. For more information on STEM pay, visit DCIPS STEM Compensation . GG-11: $105,262 - $136,848
GG-12: $117,753 - $153,082
GG-13: $132,751 - $172,578 The NRO is accepting applications from U.S. Citizens and current federal government employees for this position. To qualify for the position, federal government employees MUST currently be at the advertised grade level(s) and may ONLY apply for a lateral reassignment at their current grade level and step. Federal applicants who exceed the advertised grade may voluntarily request acceptance at the lower grade per IAW DoW 1400.25 Volume 2006. Hiring Incentives
The NRO may offer hiring incentives and other entitlements at management's discretion. Trial Period
All new DCIPS employees will be required to serve a 2-year trial period. Veterans' Preference
DoW Components with DCIPS positions apply Veterans' Preference to preference eligible candidates as defined by Section 2108 of Title 5 USC, in accordance with the procedures provided in DoW Instruction 1400.25, Vol 2005, DCIPS Employment and Placement. If you are a veteran claiming veterans' preference, as defined by section 2108 of Title 5 USC, you must submit documents verifying your eligibility upon request. Equal Employment Opportunity Policy
The United States government does not discriminate in employment on the basis of race, color, religion, sex, pregnancy, national origin, political affiliation, sexual orientation, marital status, disability, genetic information, age, membership in an employee organization, retaliation, parental status, military service or other non-merit factor.
- Equal Employment Opportunity (EEO) for federal employees & job applicants
Federal agencies must provide reasonable accommodation to applicants with disabilities where appropriate. Applicants requiring reasonable accommodation for any part of the application process should follow the instructions in the job opportunity announcement. For any part of the remaining hiring process, applicants should contact the hiring agency directly. Determinations on requests for reasonable accommodation will be made on a case-by-case basis. A reasonable accommodation is any change to a job, the work environment, or the way things are usually done that enables an individual with a disability to apply for a job, perform job duties or receive equal access to job benefits. Under the Rehabilitation Act of 1973, federal agencies must provide reasonable accommodations when:
- An applicant with a disability needs an accommodation to have an equal opportunity to apply for a job.
- An employee with a disability needs an accommodation to perform the essential job duties or to gain access to the workplace.
- An employee with a disability needs an accommodation to receive equal access to benefits, such as details, training, and office-sponsored events.
Privacy Act Notice (PL 93-579): We use this information to determine qualifications for employment. This is authorized under Title 5 U.S.C. 3302 and 3361.
Read more about the Privacy Act of 1974 .
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