Loss Forecasting Manager

Loss Forecasting Manager

New York, New York, United States

Job Title: Loss Forecasting Analyst - Credit Card Business

Job Summary: We are seeking an experienced Loss Forecasting Analyst with 2+ years of experience in Loss Forecasting and 6+ years of overall experience to lead our Loss Forecasting team, focusing on the credit card business. The ideal candidate will have strong business knowledge, banking domain experience, and expertise in Vintage forecasting, CCAR models, Roll rate forecasting, and Delinquency forecasting. Any added experience of Acquisition or ECM policy will be an added advantage. This role requires leadership skills to manage clients, partners and inspire and elevate a team of analysts.

Key Responsibilities:

• Develop and maintain loss forecasting models for the credit card portfolio using Roll Rate forecasting model, unit forecasting and other techniques.
• Develop portfolio level monthly loss forecasts, and track forecasts vs. actuals
• Track actuals daily to estimate if business is on track to meet the loss forecasts, and proactively inform partners if we are at risk of missing the forecast
• Understand the outcome of CCAR models, including scenario analysis and stress testing, to ensure compliance with regulatory requirements.
• Utilize vintage analysis and roll rate models for forecasting delinquency and charge-off rates.
• Implement and refine delinquency forecasting models, including time series analysis and logistic regression. Special focus on the Risk policy and its implications to the Loss Forecasting.
• Collaborate with finance, underwriting, and collections teams to gather data and insights.
• Strong understanding of Credit Card domain (especially risk management)
• Exposure with setting Risk Appetite Framework (RAF) or setting thresholds for RAF
• Stakeholder management

Qualifications:

• Bachelor's or Master's degree in Finance, Statistics, Economics, Mathematics, or related field.
• 2+ years of experience in loss forecasting, risk management, credit strategy or related roles.
• Strong business knowledge and experience in the banking domain, specifically in the credit card business.
• Experience with vintage forecasting, roll rate forecasting, and delinquency forecasting in the credit card industry.
• Strong analytical skills with experience in predictive modeling, scenario analysis, and sensitivity analysis.
• Excellent communication and presentation skills.
• Knowledge of regulatory requirements related to financial risk management in the credit card industry.

Skills and Competencies:

• Client Management and Partner Management
• Proven leadership and team management skills.
• Strong problem-solving skills and attention to detail.
• Ability to work independently and as part of a team.
• High level of integrity and professionalism.
• Strong organizational and time management skills.
• Ability to manage multiple projects and meet deadlines.