Retail Sales Forecasting Manager

Retail Sales Forecasting Manager

Retail Sales Forecasting Manager

Department: Sales

Location: In Office Hybrid | Orem, Utah

Exempt: $110,000 $120,000+ (based on experience)

At Just Ingredients a health and wellness e-commerce company we believe that nourishing your body with real ingredients is essential for living a healthy and fulfilling life. That's why our products are made using carefully selected, whole-food ingredients. And our people are just as real as our ingredients authentic, collaborative, and dedicated to fostering a workplace that inspires individuals and teams to reach their full potential.

We are seeking a strategic, analytically driven Retail Sales Forecasting Manager to own revenue forecasting and channel performance analysis across our retail and wholesale business. This is a sales-side role you will be the forecasting engine for the Sales team, working closely with Key Account Managers, the Sr Director of Sales, and cross-functional partners in Finance, Marketing, Supply Chain, and Retail Demand Planning to drive one unified, credible revenue picture.

The ideal candidate brings deep CPG retail and wholesale channel experience, expert-level forecasting skills, and the cross-functional credibility to influence planning decisions across the business. Experience with major retail accounts (Target, Walmart, Costco, Kroger), distributors and brokers (UNFI, KeH, Acosta), and health, wellness, supplement, or food and beverage categories is strongly preferred.

What You'll Do

Sales Forecasting & Revenue Planning

• Own end-to-end sales forecasting across all retail and wholesale channels maintaining rolling 1218 month revenue forecasts by account, channel, and SKU.
• Build and manage a bottoms-up forecast process grounded in pipeline data, sell-through trends, promotional calendars, and retailer replenishment patterns aligned to top-down revenue targets.
• Partner with Key Account Managers and the Sr Director of Sales to capture account-level commitments and promotional sell-in assumptions that roll up to total revenue projections.
• Develop statistical and judgmental forecasting models incorporating seasonality, product lifecycle stages, and channel-specific velocity patterns across supplements, proteins, and RTD beverages.
• Own forecast accuracy and bias reporting analyzing variance, identifying root causes, and continuously refining models to improve planning precision.
• Build scenario-based revenue forecasts (base, upside, downside) for executive planning, budget cycles, and investor reporting.

Retail & Wholesale Channel Planning

• Lead channel-level planning for all retail and wholesale accounts building forward-looking volume and revenue plans that reflect sell-in commitments, promotional activity, and distribution gains.
• Serve as the Sales team's primary planning resource for key retail partners, managing promotional forecasting, new item sell-in, seasonal volume builds, and planogram impacts for Target, Walmart, Costco, Kroger, Whole Foods, and Sprouts.
• Manage wholesale channel forecasting with broker and distributor partners (Acosta, UNFI, KeH, and convenience distributors) aligning on volume expectations, order timing, and distribution targets.
• Monitor retailer POS data, syndicated data (SPINS, IRI/Circana), and distributor shipment reports to identify sell-through trends and distribution gaps updating forecasts and informing account strategy accordingly.
• Translate commercial commitments into channel-level forecast inputs for Supply Chain, Operations, and Retail Demand Planning ensuring supply can support the sales plan.

S&OP Participation & Commercial Demand Leadership

• Represent the Sales organization in S&OP cycles presenting the commercial demand view, surfacing forecast risks and opportunities, and driving alignment between sales commitments and operational capacity.
• Prepare and present demand review packages including forecast updates by channel, volume variance analysis, promotional pipeline, and risk/opportunity summaries.
• Bridge Sales and Operations in S&OP translating pipeline and promotional commitments into demand signals for Supply Chain and Finance, and advocating for the commercial plan when supply constraints arise.
• Drive continuous improvement of S&OP processes, including commercial data inputs, forecast templates, and cross-functional accountability standards.

Sales Analytics & Reporting

• Own the sales forecasting dashboard delivering regular visibility into forecast accuracy, channel revenue performance, sell-through, promotional lift, and distribution progress.
• Build and maintain account and channel scorecards tracking revenue vs. plan, unit velocity, promotional ROI, and key commercial KPIs.
• Analyze syndicated data and retailer POS data to surface competitive category context, share-of-shelf insights, and velocity benchmarks that inform account planning.
• Deliver ad hoc revenue and channel analyses for new business pitches, budget reviews, product launches, and executive reporting.

Cross-Functional Collaboration

• Partner with Finance on revenue planning, budget vs. forecast reconciliation, and financial modeling of trade spend, slotting, and promotional support by channel.
• Collaborate with Marketing to integrate promotional calendars and launch plans into channel-level forecasts.
• Work with Supply Chain, Operations, and Retail Demand Planning to communicate demand implications of account commitments, distribution gains, and promotional events.
• Support the Sales team in retail sell-in preparation by providing account-level volume projections and launch sizing estimates for line review submissions.

Chargeback & Compliance Oversight

• Track and manage sales-side chargebacks and deductions including OTIF penalties, compliance violations, and pricing discrepancies in partnership with Finance and Logistics.
• Maintain visibility into retailer compliance requirements and deduction history, providing the Sales team with account-level risk summaries and corrective action recommendations.

What We Offer

• Competitive salary based on experience
• Medical, Dental, Life Insurance
• 401K with company matching
• 4 weeks accrued PTO
• Employee discounts
• Fast-paced environment
• Purposeful mission for health and wellness

Just Ingredients is an Equal Opportunity Employer. We celebrate diversity and are committed to creating an inclusive environment for all employees.

Qualifications

What You'll Bring

Education & Experience

• Bachelor's degree in Business, Sales Management, Marketing, Supply Chain, Finance, or related field.
• 710+ years of CPG experience with a strong focus on sales forecasting, revenue planning, and retail/wholesale channel management.
• 5+ years at a nationally distributed food, supplement, or beverage company with proven forecasting experience across mass retail, natural/specialty grocery, club, and/or convenience channels.
• Expert-level sales forecasting experience bottoms-up account forecasting, top-down budget reconciliation, and scenario-based planning in a CPG or consumer brand setting.
• Hands-on experience with wholesale distributors and broker networks (UNFI, KeH, Acosta, or comparable).
• Experience in S&OP as the commercial demand representative, including demand review ownership and consensus forecasting.
• Background in health, wellness, supplement, protein, or RTD/beverage categories strongly preferred.

Technical Skills

• Advanced Excel and ERP/planning system experience (NetSuite, SAP, or similar); hands-on experience with S&OP or IBP platforms (SAP IBP, Kinaxis, O9, Anaplan, or comparable).
• Experience with retailer portals and replenishment systems (Retail Link, Target POL, 1WorldSync, or similar).
• Proficiency with syndicated data platforms (SPINS, IRI/Circana) and strong data visualization and reporting skills.
• Familiarity with EDI transaction sets (850, 856, 810, 846) is a plus.

Soft Skills

• Commercially minded with a sales-side orientation motivated by forecast accuracy, revenue growth, and enabling the Sales team to win.
• Expert cross-functional communicator, equally comfortable with retail buyers, executive leadership, and day-to-day operations partners.
• Highly analytical and detail-oriented with the discipline to manage multiple accounts, channels, and forecast cycles simultaneously.