Pharma Commercial Forecasting Expert - Launch Curves

Role Description

We are seeking experienced pharma commercial and forecasting professionals to support an expert human-evaluation project focused on commercial drugs and drug-development programs. You will help create and critique structured evaluation rubrics that assess the quality, realism, and defensibility of pharmaceutical commercial forecasts and launch assumptions.

This opportunity is designed for professionals with hands-on experience in pharma commercial strategy, forecasting, analytics, or sales who understand how drug launches translate into real-world uptake and market performance.

• Create and critique objective, high-quality rubrics for evaluating commercial drugs and drug-development programs.
• Build, review, and pressure-test drug launch curves, including uptake trajectories, market penetration, peak share, and time-to-peak assumptions.
• Evaluate whether commercial forecasting assumptions are realistic and supported by appropriate evidence.
• Assess the use of analog products, launch ramps, peak sales expectations, competitive dynamics, and loss-of-exclusivity considerations.
• Identify overly optimistic, conservative, or unsupported assumptions within commercial forecasts.
• Apply commercial forecasting expertise across a defined set of pharmaceutical launches and therapeutic areas.
• Provide clear, evidence-based reasoning for conclusions and recommendations.

Qualifications

• 5+ years of professional experience in pharmaceutical commercial forecasting, analytics, commercial strategy, or a closely related field.
• Experience working in pharma commercial organizations, including sales, forecasting, analytics, market strategy, or launch planning.
• Strong familiarity with biotech and pharmaceutical development programs.
• Hands-on experience building, reviewing, or critiquing drug launch, uptake, or sales forecasting models.
• Understanding of key commercial forecasting concepts, including market sizing, patient uptake, analog selection, market share, launch ramp, peak penetration, and loss of exclusivity.
• Strong analytical and critical-thinking skills with the ability to distinguish defensible assumptions from unsupported estimates.
• Excellent written communication skills and the ability to clearly explain commercial forecasting judgments.

Preferred Qualifications

• Experience supporting pharmaceutical product launches or pre-launch commercial planning.
• Background in pharma sales, commercial analytics, forecasting, or business strategy.
• Experience evaluating competitive landscapes, market dynamics, and product positioning.
• Familiarity with forecasting methodologies, launch analogs, scenario analysis, and revenue modeling.
• Prior experience with AI evaluation, training-data, or human-data projects is a plus.

Engagement Details

• Duration: Approximately 10–20 hours over a 1–2 week pilot
• Work Arrangement: Fully remote
• Location: United States
• Engagement Type: Independent contractor
• Potential: Strong contributors may be considered for recurring engagements as the work expands.

Why Participate

• Contribute your real-world pharmaceutical commercial expertise to the evaluation of advanced AI systems.
• Help improve how AI models reason about drug launches, commercial forecasts, and pharmaceutical market dynamics.
• Work on intellectually rigorous projects that translate professional expertise into structured evaluation frameworks.
• Opportunity for continued project work based on performance and future project needs.

Application Process

Qualified applicants may be asked to provide their professional background and complete a brief screening or technical assessment focused on pharmaceutical commercial forecasting. We consider all qualified applicants without regard to legally protected characteristics and provide reasonable accommodations upon request.

Contract and Payment Terms

You will be engaged as an independent contractor. This is a fully remote role that can be completed on your own schedule. Projects may be extended, shortened, or concluded early depending on project requirements and performance.

Your work will not involve access to confidential or proprietary information from any employer, client, or institution.

Payments are made weekly via Stripe or Wise based on services rendered.

Please note: H-1B and STEM OPT candidates cannot be supported for this engagement.