Data Science and Forecasting Lead

Role Description

The RLC (Residential and Light Commercial) Data Science and Forecasting Lead is responsible for developing Carrier-specific demand forecast models for the North America Residential and Light Commercial markets. In partnership with the Market Intelligence and Strategic Insights team, this critical role will forecast industry trends, identify key industry growth drivers, and report insights within the organization. This role partners closely with the Climate Solutions Americas leaders responsible for Residential and Light Commercial strategy and market intelligence, as well as executive leadership and cross-functional teams to shape near-term and long-range industry outlook as well as demand and strategic planning.

Key Responsibilities

• Industry Demand Forecasting:
  • Maintain and refine industry demand models to forecast short-term and long-term North America Residential and Light Commercial HVAC market demand.
  • Generate supplemental industry outlook forecast scenarios through sensitivity analysis against key variables and assumptions.
  • Leverage, maintain, and refine Carrier’s demand sensing forecast for Residential and Light Commercial to detect and respond to short-term changes in customer demand.
• Forecast Performance Monitoring:
  • Track forecast model accuracy using KPIs such as MAPE.
  • Continuously improve model accuracy and forecasting methodologies.
• Insights Communication:
  • Prepare monthly executive-level demand outlook reports.
  • Maintain and refine market intelligence dashboard for senior leadership.
  • Proactively highlight “Red Flag” metrics identified by the demand forecasting model.
• Demand Planning:
  • Pressure-test the Annual Operating Plan (Plan) industry outlook forecast.
  • Collaborate with North America Sales & Operations Planning personnel to develop the SIOP monthly demand forecast.
• Market Intelligence Integration:
  • Incorporate U.S. and Canadian regulatory changes and insights into the forecast and demand planning models.
  • Maintain an in-depth knowledge of designated markets and trends through monitoring industry reports and market research.

Qualifications

• Bachelor’s degree.
• 5+ years of combined experience in demand forecasting, economic modelling, and data analytics.
• 2+ years’ experience with time-series modeling (ARIMA, regression, leading indicator models).
• 5+ years’ experience in developing executive-level summaries and presentations.
• 5+ years’ experience with Microsoft Excel and PowerPoint.

Preferred Qualifications

• Master’s degree, preferably in Economics, Statistics, Finance, Data Science/Analytics, Supply Chain, or related field.
• Experience with business intelligence, analytics, data visualization and Supply Chain management tools such as Power BI, Tableau, ThinkCell, Kinaxis and similar tools.
• Experience with statistical modeling, data science tools such as Python, SAS, cloud platforms or similar tools.
• Familiarity with U.S. and Canadian HVAC industry, including current and future regulations and standards.
• Knowledge of macroeconomic trends and factors and their impact on HVAC demand.
• An ability to work collaboratively and deliver results through virtual collaboration environments.
• Proven ability to execute with speed and exhibit a bias for action.

Requirements

• Immigration sponsorship is not supported for this position.

Pay Range

• The annual salary for this position is between $96,000.00 - $192,000.00 annually.
• Factors which may affect pay within this range include skills, education, experience, and other unique qualifications of the successful candidate.

Benefits

• Health Care Benefits: Medical, Dental, Vision; Wellness incentives
• Retirement Benefits
• Time off and Leave:
  • Paid vacation days, up to 15 days
  • Paid sick days, up to 5 days
  • Paid personal leave, up to 5 days
  • Paid holidays, up to 13 days
  • Birth and adoption leave
  • Parental leave
  • Family and medical leave
  • Bereavement leave
  • Jury duty leave
  • Military leave
  • Purchased vacation
• Disability: Short-term and long-term disability
• Life Insurance and Accidental Death and Dismemberment
• Tax-Advantaged Accounts: Health Savings Account; Health Care Spending Account; Dependent Care Spending Account
• Tuition Assistance

Application Deadline

• Applications will be accepted for at least 3 days from Job Posting Date: 20 April 2026